KELLY MAY KISS THE CANVAS BUT HE WILL KO HOPKINS
By Jim Amato

August 14, 2008 - Ever since it was announced that Kelly Pavlik was going to meet Bernard Hopkins, I've felt that this would be a tough fight for Kelly. I still do. I've really thought about this fight. I've tried to break it down to its likely conclusion. Here goes...

Pavlik depends on pressure. He applies it from the opening bell until the end. Bernard is famous for his stalling tactics but he will find Kelly a hard man to discourage. In a nut shell, Pavlik will not dance to Bernard's tune. Kelly will set and dictate the pace of this fight. This is not good news for Bernard's aging legs and often weary arms. To Hopkins credit he is a crafty old coot. He will have a plan B. One of Bernard's best assets is his counter punching ability. He is a very cunning fighter. Kelly likes to work behind his jab and then throw long, lethal rights to the head and body. He likes to get full extension on that right to generate maximum power. When Kelly wings the right he is not in the best position to defend himself. Hopkins has a great counter left hook and Pavlik may be opening the door for Hopkins to land it. To me this is Bernard's best chance to win the fight. Possibly the only chance.

It will not surprise me if Hopkins puts Pavlik down somewhere in the first five or six rounds. It also won't surprise me when Kelly gets back up. What will surprise Hopkins is the great tenacity of the young man he is fighting. I feel Kelly will have a slight lead over the first half of the fight because of his work rate. I do expect Bernard to have his moments though.

As we get into the second half of the fight the momentum will change at an accelerated rate. You have all heard the adage " a fighter can grow old overnight ". By this point of the battle Bernard will begin to feel the effects of the pressure. Pavlik is not shy about going to the body and it will be around this time that those thunderous body blows in the earlier rounds sap the spring in Bernard's time worn legs. His arms will no longer obey his command to throw combinations. A one punch at a time output is a bad recipe when facing a youthful gunslinger like Pavlik. Hopkins will begin to take inhuman punishment. His great pride will not allow him to fall. Either pride will finally be overpowered or a merciful referee will step in. Succumb he will to the young lion before him. On this night, one legend will end and another will begin.

 

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